In the era of stock economy, the path to wealth for ordinary people has become even narrower.

The past month has been nothing short of an earthquake for live-streaming e-commerce.

First, Xin Ba and Xiao Yang Ge sparked a verbal war over the price of the same brand of hairy crabs they were promoting, which temporarily ended with Xin Ba being banned.

Then, the Mei Cheng mooncakes promoted by Xiao Yang Ge suddenly backfired.

The so-called "Hong Kong brand" turned out to be merely "registered in Hong Kong, produced in mainland China."

The Three Sheep fell into an unprecedented crisis of trust, eventually leading to official intervention and a thorough investigation.

Advertisement

In a fierce battle, the two giants of live-streaming e-commerce both suffered losses, with no winners.

This is just the tip of the iceberg of the 2024 live-streaming e-commerce exodus.

This year, the traffic pool of live-streaming e-commerce has shown signs of running dry: the growth of Douyin e-commerce has slowed down, the sales volume of top anchors has plummeted, they have bared their teeth for the last bit of traffic and started fighting each other; super top anchors have started side businesses, seemingly intending to retire from the industry; some small anchors have seen a drastic drop in income, with hourly wages as low as 20 yuan, even less than distributing flyers.

At the same time, the state's scrutiny of e-commerce live-streaming is also tightening.

The "Regulations on the Implementation of the Consumer Rights Protection Law of the People's Republic of China," which came into effect in July this year, has tailored many clauses for live-streaming e-commerce.

The penalty is expected to be imposed soon.

Once upon a time, live-streaming e-commerce was a shortcut for grassroots people to get rich overnight and achieve social mobility, from post-2000s to post-1960s, everyone was live-streaming, with myths like "earning 4 million in one session" and "driving a Maserati in half a year"...

These myths shattered this year.

The feast of traffic is coming to an end.

The anxiety behind the verbal war is the high-end business war, which is often carried out in the most plain form.

For example, live-streaming fights.

August is the season when hairy crabs go on sale.

On August 31, Xin Ba put a "Mrs. Crab" crab card gift box on his live broadcast, but soon after, this link was reported.

Xin Ba and some fans believe that the reporter is Xiao Yang Ge, because Xiao Yang Ge was promoting the same brand of hairy crabs on the same day, and his goods could offer a higher discount, grabbing his customers.

The war thus began.

Xin Ba criticized Xiao Yang Ge's products for quality and after-sales issues in the live broadcast, and even claimed to take out 100 million funds to "teach a lesson" to the Three Sheep and the entire industry.

In response, Lu Wenqing, the co-founder of the Three Sheep, live broadcasted to counterattack Xin Ba, accusing him of shamelessly seeking heat and traffic without limits, and said harshly, "There are ten thousand ways to deal with you."

Subsequently, Xin Ba turned his attack towards personal ethics, exposing scandals involving female anchors and executives under the Three Sheep.

This turned the business dispute into a "century-long verbal war" that lasted for half a month.

The mooncake incident that followed dealt a fatal blow to the Three Sheep.

The reason is that on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, Xiao Yang Ge and his anchors promoted a "Hong Kong Mei Cheng mooncake," but netizens found that this mooncake, apart from being registered in Hong Kong, was basically produced in Guangzhou and Foshan, a typical "fake Hong Kong product."

Xiao Yang Ge, who was already in a crisis of trust, completely collapsed.

Angry netizens demanded refunds and reported the Three Sheep to the relevant departments for "false propaganda and deceiving consumers."

In the end, even Hefei City, where the Three Sheep company is located, had to intervene and announced a thorough investigation of the incident, putting an end to the storm.

Looking at this verbal war, Xin Ba always held the initiative in the discourse, frequently throwing out "explosive material," although he was eventually banned by the platform for instigating the war, but he established a character of being bold and outspoken; while Xiao Yang Ge and the Three Sheep lost completely in both business and character, and have already lost the qualification to fight.

With so many hot searches and a large amount of public resources occupied, what exactly was the purpose of this tedious and lengthy drama?

There is an interesting phenomenon: Baidu Index shows that compared with the peak period five years ago, Xin Ba's search index has declined significantly, and at the same time, the frequency of his verbal attacks has also increased.

On hot searches, it is often seen that Xin Ba is fighting against the world: "Xin Ba responds to the statement that children should eat pre-made dishes," "Xin Ba says Li Jiaqi has become a victim of platform competition," "Xin Ba accuses Kuaishou of faking popularity in the live broadcast," and so on.

Xin Ba's attacks may not necessarily be popular, but at least the heat is up.

For the anchor, black is also red.

Xin Ba, who started from the grassroots and is well versed in the way of struggle, undoubtedly knows this truth better, so he often provokes disputes to maintain his own personal exposure and topic discussion.

Behind the verbal battle, it is a major reshuffling of the fans of the two families.

According to the data of Grey Dolphin, from August 31 to September 8, Xiao Yang Ge's Douyin platform account lost more than 600,000 fans, with 156,000 fans on the 5th; on the other hand, according to the data of Magnetic Star, from August 31 to September 7, Xin Ba's Kuaishou platform account gained 430,000 fans.

The anchor has gained attention and traffic, which is real money.

As consumers, what have we gained in this storm?

When the tide recedes, everyone only understands one truth: "It turns out that family members really only cheat family members."

It is difficult to say why Xin Ba and Xiao Yang Ge can fight.

Because although both of them are super top anchors of live-streaming e-commerce, one is on Kuaishou and the other is on Douyin, and the audience groups do not overlap.

It should be the case that they sell goods on their own and live in peace.

Moreover, the two can be considered "fellow travelers": both are from the grassroots, and have achieved social mobility due to the trend of live broadcasting.

Until last year, Xiao Yang Ge still affectionately called Xin Ba "teacher."

But now, the teacher and student have become enemies.

The verbal war between the two, which has a sense of life and death, may indicate that the water in the live e-commerce traffic pool is not much.

When the water is dry, the fish in the pond will not help each other, but will think about pressing all the fish except themselves to death.

This year, the lives of the top anchors have not been very good.

In the first pre-sale live broadcast of this year's 618, Li Jiaqi, the king of Taobao, sold a total of 2.675 billion yuan of beauty products, a decline of 46% compared to last year.

The same is true for the performance of the first broadcast of 618: the Guangdong couple on Douyin, with a transaction volume of 450 million yuan last year, this year is 61.14 million yuan, a decline of 86.4%; Qi Er, with a transaction volume of 111 million yuan last year, this year is 12.923 million yuan, a decline of 88.46%; Pan Yu Run, with a transaction volume of 29.529 million yuan last year, this year is 6.748 million yuan, a decline of 77%...

Although from the overall data, the income of live e-commerce has increased in the first half of this year.

But the decline of the effect of top anchors is an indisputable fact.

Corresponding to the sharp decline in sales of top anchors is the decline in income of e-commerce practitioners since last year.

According to the data of iMedia Consulting, in the first quarter of 2023, the salary level of national live e-commerce anchors declined by about 30% compared with the same period last year.

On some recruitment websites, the monthly income of e-commerce anchors has dropped from tens of thousands of yuan to between 8,000-15,000 yuan, and some anchors' hourly wages have dropped to as low as 20 yuan, even less than distributing flyers.

Under excessive competition, even top anchors can no longer get the "lowest pricing power," and naturally cannot extract high value from profits.

The advantage is no longer there, and the various problems that were previously covered up by rapid growth are gradually emerging.

The myth of getting rich quickly in live e-commerce is no longer there, and many insiders have also started to look for a way out.

Many big anchors have announced that they are "lying flat," not only reducing the number of live broadcasts, but also starting to lay out side businesses, seemingly intending to retire from the industry.

Li Jiaqi is busy opening Tmall stores and participating in variety shows; Xin Ba said he will reduce the frequency of live broadcasts and focus on studying artificial intelligence; Xiao Yang Ge focuses on short film and music festivals; and Dong Yuhui openly said in an interview that he actually "resists carrying goods," and this year he has spent a lot of time promoting the culture and tourism of various places.

In short, everyone is busy, but no one is willing to carry goods.

Of course, this kind of "lying flat" is probably just talking.

Before the transformation has achieved obvious results, the big escape of e-commerce anchors will be even more cruel.

When the anchors are no longer able to continue to roll the price, some mutually attacking moves will inevitably appear.

This means that in the foreseeable future, we will see more inside information about live e-commerce.

At the same time, the state's scrutiny of e-commerce live broadcasting is also tightening.

In the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Consumer Rights Protection Law of the People's Republic of China" implemented in July this year, many clauses have been tailored for live e-commerce.

For example, live e-commerce must clearly state "who is carrying the goods" and "whose goods are being carried."

The red line of supervision has been drawn, and when will the penalty be imposed?

It should not be too long.

Time goes back to 2022 when live e-commerce was at its peak.

That year's Double 11 is particularly memorable: the Guangdong couple's live broadcast GMV broke through 700 million; Luo Yonghao's first JD live broadcast GMV broke through 150 million; and Li Jiaqi's pre-sale day took 12.3 billion GMV... Everyone was shocked: It turns out that live e-commerce has such a terrifying money-sucking ability.

For a while, celebrities, internet celebrities, and even local governments all went down to try to get a share of the traffic pool.

"The end of the universe is carrying goods," which was not a joke at the time.

E-commerce anchors also went crazy: It turns out that wealth can come so fast.

According to the 2021 China Internet Anchor Annual Net Income Statistics, Li Jiaqi and Xin Ba led with an income of 1.8553 billion and 1.2987 billion, respectively.

In short video platforms, all kinds of videos of famous cars, watches, and wines stimulate people's nerves, and the protagonists of the videos have changed from stars to anchors.

However, only two years have passed, and it is very difficult to hear the news of a big sale in a certain live broadcast room, and the last time seems to be last year when Xin Ba sold 800 million durians in Thailand.Times are changing, and so are e-commerce live streamers; many familiar faces have faded from public view.

Phenomenal anchors are becoming increasingly rare, and after much thought, only Dong Yuhui from last year comes to mind.

Over the past few years, many top streamers have gone through a life cycle: they diligently broadcast for several years, gradually accumulating a large number of loyal fans, and their careers flourish until they are at their peak.

However, at this point, some scandal often occurs, leading to a collapse in reputation, and they are forced to apologize on camera.

Selling counterfeit goods, making bizarre statements, or even tax evasion, there's always something that can fit the bill for these streamers.

Another noticeable change is that public opinion about e-commerce streamers has shifted over the years.

From the myth of grassroots wealth to the current perception of swindlers and capitalists.

Li Jiaqi sparked a wave of ridicule online with a single phrase "Where is it expensive?

", and after Dong Yuhui transitioned from a worker to a boss, he began to be criticized for being "too patriarchal."

In a declining era, any "inappropriate" remark can prick the sensitive nerves of people.

Streamers have also started to keep a low profile, showing off their wealth less and engaging in charity more.

From wealth creation myths to a mass exodus, it can be said that live-streaming e-commerce has completed the life cycle that many industries take a decade or two to go through in just a few years.

This pace is staggering and may indicate that the existing dividends in Chinese society are rapidly diminishing.

As of December 2023, China's internet user base reached 1.092 billion people, with an internet penetration rate of 77.5%.

Based on the constant population size, this number is likely to be the foundation of China's internet for a long time to come.

The competition for internet users has arrived, and live-streaming e-commerce, which is a business with few technical barriers, is bound to face more impact.

Some may ask, "Do we really have to sell goods?"

Indeed, live-streaming e-commerce, as a continuation of TV shopping guides, is a marketing method that is hard to say has any profound innovation.

However, e-commerce live streaming is one of the few industries in China today where ordinary people can participate and potentially achieve social mobility.

Xin Ba, Li Jiaqi, and Xiao Yang Ge were all ordinary grassroots before they became famous.

Achieving common prosperity, of course, cannot rely on live-streaming e-commerce.

But we need to think: why are there almost only selling goods left for ordinary people to get rich?

When can we cultivate more new growth points to allow people to dare to dream of getting rich overnight?

The flow of wealth is the flow of people.

What will be the next opportunity?

More importantly, can ordinary Chinese people still catch this ride?